In a new twist, US President Joe Biden has opened the door for Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range missiles specifically the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to launch deeper strikes into Russian territory. This is at a time when international tensions are ratcheting up, with reportedly thousands of North Korean troops now having been deployed to bolster Russia’s operations against Ukraine. The lifting of the restrictions on the missile capacity of Ukraine would have huge repercussions, and I think one needs to discuss whether it is the appropriate way.
The Implications of Biden’s Decision
For months now, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his supporters have pressed the United States to allow Ukraine to hit military targets deeper inside Russia. They contend that the U.S. prohibition on long-range missiles has infringed on Ukraine’s ability to protect its cities and vital infrastructure, all the more so especially during ongoing Russian attacks. Proponents of this move believe that allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory will shift the tide of the war.
However, I think this may worsen the situation by driving it to a more terrible phase. Russia is no ordinary country that will withdraw because of threats by the United States. We all know this from history. Instead of eliciting a more aggressive attitude, Biden should try to push both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy into the negotiation table in pursuit of a peaceful resolution. The longer the war goes on, the higher the number of casualties is and the greater the likelihood that the outcome will be catastrophic.
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The Risks: What If Ukraine Strikes Russian Cities?
One serious threat is that Ukraine could use these missiles to attack the Russian cities. If that happens, then Ukraine would be facing very heavy retaliation. Russia has recently modified its nuclear doctrine, and retaliation in terms of nuclear use may now include an attack on the Russian territory. I do not believe Russia will engage in full-scale nuclear warfare, but there is a possibility that Russia may use a small-scale nuclear weapon. This is something that can ruin Ukraine.
However, I also believe that the possibilities for a nuclear strike are pretty low, simply because Putin understands that to open fire would ignite a global crisis, possibly leading to World War 3. Although he has made statements that look in favor of a bolder position, it is very unlikely that he would take the nuclear war initiative unless he was provoked into doing so.
North Korea’s Role: A Dangerous Wildcard
Things get even more complicated with North Korea as they have deployed thousands of their soldiers in Russia, presumably for Moscow to use there in reclaiming some lost ground near the Ukrainian border. This causes alarm since apparently it is the other countries like North Korea that are now directly getting themselves involved in the affair, making things even harder to predict.
But that is not all; now we have to account for the fact that North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, will want to hit the US with nuclear weapons. No doubt this sounds unrealistic, but North Korea is already a participant in Russia’s war efforts, and broader hostilities are becoming increasingly likely. Something we should be keeping our eyes on.
What Should Biden Do?
So, where do we stand? I do not think that Biden wants to end the war shortly. His latest decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles is an indication that he plans to escalate the scenario instead of looking for a peaceful resolution to this war. This could prolong the war, and the longer it goes on, the more it will cost in terms of lives, money, and global stability.
To my mind, Biden should be calling upon Putin and Zelenskyy to decide how they can settle the issue and find a way to put a stop to the region. Sending Ukraine deeper into Russian territory could backfire, given that mistakes may occur – and there’s a real very real danger that long-range strikes will embolden Russia to escalate their response. Biden has allowed some munitions to get through to Ukraine, but I think he needs to walk a lot more carefully if he ever hopes to end this war.
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A Glimpse of Hope: Trump’s Potential Role
On the other hand, many of us, including myself, are apprehensively waiting for January 2025 when Donald Trump takes the White House. Personally, Donald Trump appears the best candidate, who may put an end to this long war. He’s expressed a desire to end the war quickly and save US taxpayer money, and I think he might be the kind of leader who can apply real pressure on both Putin and Zelenskyy to negotiate a peaceful settlement.
Still, we can’t be quite sure about it. Considering that some feared that Trump would possibly give an advantage to Russia, I believe a balanced and fast end to the war may even become helpful both for Ukraine and the United States.
My Take on the Situation
In short, I believe that the move to allow Ukraine to make use of long-range missiles will spur the war even more significantly, maybe this time due to awful judgment, and now Russia will retaliate brutally. What we need now is more dialogue than weapons. Therefore, I would advise Biden to push for peace talks instead of fuelling the fire.
As far as the role of the US is concerned, I hope if the right leadership exists within this country then that war would soon come to an end and that costs for taxpayers would be kept minimum. This war can be won without further bloodshed.
What do you think? Should the US keep supplying Ukraine with more weapons or push for talks between the leaders? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! You can also follow us on social media for regular insights on world updates.
Analysis by Atul Raj
